Is Castings P.L.C.'s (LON:CGS) Recent Price Movement Underpinned By Its Weak Fundamentals?

Jul 28, 2023

Stock Analysis

It is hard to get excited after looking at Castings' (LON:CGS) recent performance, when its stock has declined 11% over the past week. It is possible that the markets have ignored the company's differing financials and decided to lean-in to the negative sentiment. Stock prices are usually driven by a company’s financial performance over the long term, and therefore we decided to pay more attention to the company's financial performance. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Castings' ROE today.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

View our latest analysis for Castings

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Castings is:

10% = UK£14m ÷ UK£132m (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2023).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. So, this means that for every £1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of £0.10.

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

To begin with, Castings seems to have a respectable ROE. Be that as it may, the company's ROE is still quite lower than the industry average of 14%. Additionally, the flat earnings seen by Castings over the past five years doesn't paint a very bright picture. Not to forget, the company does have a decent ROE to begin with, just that it is lower than the industry average. So there might be other reasons for the flat earnings growth. For example, it could be that the company has a high payout ratio or the business has alloacted capital, for instance.

As a next step, we compared Castings' net income growth with the industry and discovered that the industry saw an average growth of 16% in the same period.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Has the market priced in the future outlook for CGS? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.

Castings has a high three-year median payout ratio of 78% (or a retention ratio of 22%), meaning that the company is paying most of its profits as dividends to its shareholders. This does go some way in explaining why there's been no growth in its earnings.

In addition, Castings has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to drop to 51% over the next three years.

Overall, we have mixed feelings about Castings. Specifically, the low earnings growth is a bit concerning, especially given that the company has a respectable rate of return. Investors may have benefitted, had the company been reinvesting more of its earnings. As discussed earlier, the company is retaining a small portion of its profits. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

Find out whether Castings is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Castings P.L.C. engages in the iron casting and machining activities.

Flawless balance sheet established dividend payer.